Opinion: It really is different this time — a new era for stocks is just getting started
What if the real lesson for investors who study financial-market history is that the future will be unlike the past? Financial markets periodically undergo profound sea changes that have little similarity to what came before. This means that history tells us little other than that the future is unknowable.
Bryan Taylor, chief economist at Global Financial Data, believes we currently are undergoing another of these sea changes. The table below summarizes the previous eras in U.S. market history back to 1792, as Taylor laid them out in an interview.
The table also reports for each era the amount by which stocks beat bonds — the so-called equity premium. The equity premium data are from a new database compiled by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara (Calif.) University. The data for the period from 1982 ends…