Russia is driving the global energy shock
There have been a lot of articles pointing to the Chinese ban on Australian coal imports as the cause of the global energy shock. This was partly the case earlier in 2021. But Australian coal has been going out roughly as normal more recently, just to other markets. The key driver is, in fact, choked Russian and “other” coal exports which includes Indonesian.
UBS with the note:
Lower seaborne coal shipments (-1% YTD) supporting record high prices
UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) suggests coal shipments remain down ~1% YTD (as of 26-Sep). Higher shipments have emerged from US producers (+22% YTD), while Australian and Indonesian shipments are also up slightly (both +1% YTD). These gains, however, have been offset by Russia (-17% YTD), Canada (-8% YTD), and South Africa (-7% YTD). Shipments over the week (ending 26-Sep) were down 2% y/y, compared to +9% y/y in the…