November 17, 2021

Taper tantrum? Only if somebody wakes the U.S. bond market

Quiet, please, the bond market is sleeping.

In February and March , as the U.S. economy began to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, a selloff in U.S. Treasurys sent yields up sharply, with the 10-year benchmark

coming within a whisker of 1.8%. Partly as a result investors began to rotate away from technology and other growth stocks that are sensitive to higher interest rates which had performed well during the pandemic, limiting further gains in the major stock indexes.

Since then the bond market has been subdued, with yields falling back below 1.6% even as fears of a surge in inflation have mounted as businesses have reopened and consumer demand has ramped up. The market calm seems to fly in the face of talk of a repeat of the 2013-14 “taper tantrum” that left bond traders with psychological scars after yields rose…

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