November 17, 2021

The clearest evidence that Wall Street has no clue where Treasury yields are headed

If you predicted that yields for U.S. government debt would be lower in late June than they were a few months ago, say in March, even as the Federal Reserve now acknowledges that inflation may bust out higher and for longer than had originally been anticipated, you would be oh-so wrong.

A research report by James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, dated Wednesday perhaps best illustrates a shift in sentiment in markets that appear to be grasping for clarity on what the next phase of the cycle will be for Treasurys after the pandemic led to a powerful rally in global bonds, pushing prices up and yields down.

The Leuthold Group

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