October 19, 2021

U.S. economy back on track, but labor market, inflation are concerns

The U.S. economy will grow at about 9.3% this quarter, then growth will decelerate but still post a strong 6.3% GDP gain on the full year.

That’s the most recent assessment from Bill Witte, macroeconomist with industry forecaster FTR. He said the second half will see growth of about 4.8%, before it slows to a more normalized 2.5% in 2022.

The labor market will continue to be a challenge in the U.S., Witte added.

“My feeling is, and my model is saying, the progress in bringing unemployment down is going to be slower than what we thought six months ago,” he said, adding unemployment in the U.S. isn’t likely to reach pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. In fact, he said employment won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until beyond 2022.

While GDP is close to pre-pandemic levels, the labor market won’t fully recover until the end of 2023, Witte said. By…

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