September 19, 2021

Weak dollar awaits jobs rescue

DXY is posting its 5th consecutive daily decline, the longest string of losses since April. Thursday’s release of weekly jobless showed a slight decline as expected, but it was Wednesday’s poor ADP employment report and hawkish ECB comments in response to highe Ezone CPI that helped accelerate USD selling. ADP does have a  spotty record but the soft August reading adds to the mounting evidence that the US economy isn’t as strong as believed. The NASDAQ charts below suggest a short-term trading opportunity in NASDAQ100 based on 4 prior cases. We let the charts speak for themselves. 

The ADP employment report showed the US adding just 374K jobs in August compared to 640K expected. That was compounded by the employment component of the ISM manufacturing report falling below 50.

The pandemic-era history of the ADP report and the small size of manufacturing…

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